Trump vs Powell

Ang Laro ng Bilang

Sinabihan ni Trump ang mundo sa Truth Social: “Wala tayong rate cut habang Europa ay binabaan nang 10 beses. Walang inflation. Malakas ang ekonomiya. Bawasan natin ng 2 hanggang 3 puntos.” At sinabi pa niya, $80 bilyon taun-taon ang maiiwasan.

Hindi ako dito para suportahan o iwasan si Trump—pero tingnan natin ito tulad ng isang DeFi audit. Mga nakakagulat na numero, pero talagang pang-ugnay lang, hindi math.

Bakit 2-3% Parang Magic?

Ang pagbaba ng 2–3% ay tila malaking bagay—lalo na mula sa dating presidente na may megaphone. Pero totoo: hindi maglalakad ang Fed nang ganito malaki kung walang collapse sa ekonomiya.

Hindi tayo nakakaranas ng deflation o recession—kundi normal na growth at pabilis na inflation. Kaya’t napakahusay ito bilang maagap, kahit mapanganib.

Pero anong epekto sa utak? Napakalaki. ‘Naiiwan $80B’ parang libreng pera. Pero sa makroekonomiks? Ito lang ay paglipat ng panganib mula ngayon papuntâ sa bukas.

Inflation vs Identidad

Dito dumating ang tunay na laruan—hindi tungkol sa kontrol ng inflation, kundi identidad.

Si Trump ay nagtatayo ng banyagamg polisiya bilang “anti-Fed guy.” Ang kanyang tagapakinig ay hindi interesado kung tamang teknikal ang rate—they want defiance against elite institutions.

At si Powell? Ngayon ay simbolikong target—not because he failed, but because he stands for continuity, caution, and independence—the opposite of populist disruption.

Ito ay klasiykal na behavioral economics: hindi sila naniniwala sa resulta—naniniwala sila sa pakiramdam na may kapamahalaan sila kay ekonomiya.

Gusto Ng Merkado Ng Drama (Pero Ayaw Sa Surprise)

Sa crypto space, tinatawag natin ito “fear-driven liquidity”—kapag hilo ang volume mas mabilis kaysa makabasehan. The same applies here. The markets react fast to Trump tweets—even if they know it’s posturing.

But when surprise hits—like an unexpected rate hike or cut—it causes volatility spikes across equities, bonds, and even Bitcoin. So yes: Trump shouting “cut rates!” might not change policy—but it does change market psychology… which can influence policy indirectly through pressure points.

Think of it as social engineering via tweetstorm—a modern twist on monetary signaling that blends politics with economic messaging in ways we’ve never seen before.

Ano Ang Dapat Tumingin?

The real story isn’t whether Trump wants lower rates—it’s who listens when he speaks. The Fed operates in silence most of the time—but now every word from the White House echoes across financial markets like news alerts from Wall Street Station X. So instead of fixating on the exact number (2–3%), focus on two things:

• How much attention is paid to these calls?
• And how do bond yields respond—not just today, but next month? That’s where you’ll find real yield signals—not in tweets, but in price action backed by algorithmic traders who trade faster than any human can think.