How the Trump vs. Harris Election Battle Is Shaking the Crypto Market
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Political Winds Rock Crypto Markets
Like an amateur trader leveraging 100x on a shitcoin, the US presidential race has become crypto’s latest volatility catalyst. The Biden-Trump rematch already had investors on edge, but Harris’ sudden ascendancy as Democratic nominee turned uncertainty into full-blown turbulence.
The Data Doesn’t Lie:
- BTC dropped from \(62K to \)56K as Harris’ Polymarket odds surpassed Trump’s
- July’s Trump assassination attempt spike (BTC +19%) reversed when Harris gained polling leads
- $2B in government BTC transfers sparked selloff fears under potential Democratic policies
The Contenders’ Crypto Calculus
Trump: The Flip-Flopping Bitcoin Savior?
The former president once called Bitcoin “a scam,” but now sells NFT trading cards for ETH. His campaign:
- Promises to fire SEC Chair Gensler
- Vows to keep Treasury’s Bitcoin holdings
- Launched crypto payment options (MAGA sneakers paid in BTC, anyone?)
Yet my quant models question follow-through - this smells more like courting crypto donors than conviction.
Harris: Regulatory Wildcard
The VP-turned-nominee plays her cards closer to the vest:
- Skipped “Crypto4Harris” events despite Democratic outreach efforts —Staff includes former anti-crypto Biden advisors —Running mate Walz returned FTX-linked donations
My forensic analysis of her team composition suggests continued tough regulation - likely suppressing institutional inflows.
Trading the Political Chaos
The 30-day correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has broken down completely (-0.17 as of August). This decoupling suggests:
- Macro traders pricing political risk premiums into crypto separately
- Retail FOMO cycles detached from traditional markets
- Whales using volatility to accumulate/liquidate positions
Pro Tip: Watch these key indicators: → Polymarket prediction probabilities (real-time sentiment) → Fed speeches referencing CBDCs (regulatory tells) → Coinbase lobbying disclosures (policy positioning)
As your friendly neighborhood crypto economist, I’ll be tracking this through November with Python scrapers and whiskey. The only certainty? More liquidations ahead.
ChainSight
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